Wind PPA prices, cost and other 2015 data in US

The 2015 Wind Technologies Market Report from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab was released this month.  My takeaway from the report are:

  1. 8.598 GW of wind power was added in 2015. which amounted to $14.5 billion investment
  2. Wind power was 41% of electricity generating capacity additions in 2015
  3. Wind penetration is slightly above 5% of total electricity generation
  4. Project finance environment was strong in 2015: After-tax Tax Equity yield was about 7.5% and after-tax 15-year debt interest rate was about 2.5%
  5. In 2015, average rotor diameter crossed 100m.  Average hub height was slightly above 80m.  Average nameplate capacity was slightly above 2 MW
  6. Average specific power of wind turbines was about 250 W/m2
  7. Average capacity factor of wind plants in 2014 was close to 42%
  8. Average 2015 price of wind turbine was $1,100/kW
  9. Average 2015 total installed cost of wind power plant was $1,690/kW
  10. Average 2015 O&M costs were close to $8/MWh for projects built in 2014
  11. Average 2015 PPA was $38/MWh, based on sample of 6 projects of total capacity of 401 MW.  It was much higher than 2014 PPA of $23/MWh and 2016 PPA of below $20/MWh.  The 2016 sample was based on 2 projects.
  12. The forecasted amount of wind power additions until 2020 is 8 GW per year.

 

Cost of wind energy worldwide: Low and going lower

USA:

The the price of wind energy paid by utility buyers in the USA using 20 year power purchase agreements has give from: in 2006 the average PPA was 5c, in 2009 it was 6.8c in 2014 it was 2.3c and we do not have data for 2015, but it is probably lower.  This is lower than the wholesale price of electricity in the US.  Even with incentives like 2.3c production tax credit for 10 years the unsubsidized price paid for wind energy is less than 5c.  Even at such low prices about 8.6 GW were added in the US in 2015.

Brazil:

In 2015 Brazil saw competitive auction prices of wind of 4.78 US cents per kWh.

South Africa:

In 2015, South Africa wind energy was procured at 4.5 US cents per kWh, way below the price of new coal of 7 US cents.

Egypt:

In 2016, Egypt signed to procure wind energy at 4.7 US cents per kWh.

Mexico:

In 2016, Mexico had an auction of solar and wind.  394 MW of wind projects were awarded 5.5 cents to 4.2 cents per kWh.  What is really surprising is solar PV was awarded 1.8 GW prices came in at an weighted average of 4.5 cents, with lowest at 3.54 cents.

Progress of Wind Deployments in the Philippines

Wind power has grown tremendously in the Philippines.  The Energy Regulatory Commission started with a feed-in tariff (lets call it FIT-1) of P8.53 with quota of 200 MW.  This quota was exhausted quickly.  In October 2015, FIT-2 came into existence with tariff of P7.40 with quota of additional 200 MW.  At the time of approval of FIT-2, 144 MW was already commissioned and delivering power, that is for FIT-2 only 56 MW was left.  Last data, as of May 2016, indicates that 194 MW of the 200 MW is taken.  This rapid wind power development is a testament to clear and transparent FIT, the demand for wind power and readiness of private sector to develop and finance wind power.  The Philippines adopted an unusual approach of awarding the FIT after 80% electro-mechnical completion.

Portugal achieves 100% RE for 4.5 days

Between May 7 and 11, wind and hydro contributed about 45% each of the total domestic demand of 632.7GWh.  Rest of the demand was provided by solar and biomass.  An additional 153.7 GWh was exported, which included some non-renewable energy.

More details are available at: http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1395419/portugal-powered-renewab....

 

Successful integration of 30% wind energy in Germany

I am directly quoting from this very informative article:

"Renewables now provide close to 30% of Germany’s power on an average basis.  And on some peak days in 2014, solar and wind supplied close to 80% of peak power demand at specific times of the day.  In the future, Germany is targeting a 35% average share by 2020 and a 50% average share by 2030.  Because of the feed-in tariff law (EEG), renewables have dispatch priority, meaning they are always used first, sometimes leaving very little power demand left to be supplied by coal, nuclear, and natural gas plants. So how is Germany integrating and balancing renewable energy today?  What has Germany needed to do so far?

The answer is that Germany has so far managed to integrate and balance high shares of renewable energy with very modest changes to its power system.  Bigger changes will be necessary in the future, certainly, including new market frameworks that are currently under active discussion.  But today, Germany has managed quite well to reach close to a 30% share, for seven main reasons, which are discussed below.

The two most important reasons are: (1) the existing strength of its power grids; and (2) flexible operation of coal and nuclear plants (and to a lesser extent gas and pumped hydro).  In addition, Germany has managed quite well because of: (3) better design of the balancing (ancillary) power markets, to make them more effective, faster, and open; (4) better system control software and day-ahead weather forecasting; (5) modest technical improvements to local-level distribution systems; (6) exports of power to neighboring countries; and (7) solving the “50.2 hertz” inverter problem."

For more details see http://www.martinot.info/renewables2050/how-is-germany-integrating-and-b...