Pramod Jain's blog

The following statistics were collected in early 2024 for Global energy-related (not just electricity) CO2 emissions:

1. In 2023 the total emissions were 37.4 billion tons
2. It increased in 2023 by 410 million tons (1.1% rise).  In 2022 the increase was 490 million tons.
3. 40% of the rise in 2023 can be attributed to an exceptional shortfall in hydropower due to extreme droughts in China, the US, and several other economies

Source: https://www.energyglobal.com/special-reports/04032024/growth-of-clean-en...

1. In 2023, 30% of electricity came from RE, globally
2. GHG emissions from fossil-fuel likely peaked in 2023, in the future it should decline.  In 2024 generation from fossil-fuels is expected to decline by 2%.
3. US gets 23% of electricity from RE
4. IEA is forecasting that global demand for coal, gas, and oil will peak this decade (for all energy use, not just electricity). It also projected that renewables would make up nearly 50 percent of the world’s electricity mix by 2030.

Source: https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/7/24151375/renewable-energy-global-elect...

US 3Q of 2024

1. In third quarter of 2024, US added 10.2 GW of utility-scale solar, wind and energy storage projects
2. In third quarter of 2024 in US, solar capacity accounted for 6.3 GW, and storage was 3.5 GW, and wind was 396 MW
3. 2024 has been a record year, with year-to-date installations reaching 29.6 GW, an 86% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
4. At the end of September, the US had 294 GW of clean power capacity in operation
5. Texas has the largest fleet -- 74.3 GW. California is second with 38.7 GW. Five states have more than 10 GW of clean power in operation and 16 states have more than 5 GW installed.
6. Clean power project pipeline is 170 GW at the end of September, an 18% increase year-over-year. Within this, the onshore wind pipeline expanded by 3% from the second quarter to reach 24.4 GW

Source: https://renewablesnow.com/news/us-adds-10-2-gw-of-clean-energy-capacity-...

Global offshore wind power future projection (as of early 2024): https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/visualized-offshore-wind-installatio...

US 1Q of 2024

1. Solar installations in US have surpassed 100 GW.  it took 18 years to get to 50 GW, and 4 years for it to double the capacity.  4.5 GW of solar capacity was added in 1Q 2024
2. 132 MW Offshore wind project in South Fork started generation.  This is a wind farm off the coast of NY with 12 SG-11 GW wind turbines
3. The pipeline for clean energy projects is 175 GW out of which 31.6 GW is the pipeline for BESS, and 13.7 GW of onshore wind.

Source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/us-adds-56gw-of-utility-scale...

India 1Q of 2024

1. Solar installations in India are at 82.64 GW, with 9.5 GW addition in 1Q of 2024.
2. Indian government has a target of 50 GW annual auctions of RE until 2028

Source: https://www.energetica-india.net/news/indias-solar-revolution-q1-2024-se...

The following statistics were collected in early 2024:

Global battery energy storage installations: https://www.motive-power.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/battcap.png 

Installed Capacity

1. Total wind power capacity worldwide as of the end of 2023: 1,021 GW or 1 TW
2. Total wind power capacity worldwide at the end of 2022: 906 GW
3. Total wind+solar power capacity in USA at the end of 2023: 262 GW
4. Total wind power capacity in USA at the end of 2022: 144 GW
5. Total energy storage capacity worldwide as of the end of 2022 (all types including pumped hydro): 174 GW
6. Total BESS capacity worldwide was of the end of 2023: 
7. Total energy storage capacity in USA at the end of 2023: 15.5 GW
8. China's cumulative energy storage capacity reached 34.5 GW/74.5 GWh by the end of 2023 (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/12/chinese-pv-industry-brief-station...)

New Capacity Addition

1. Global capacity additions of wind and solar PV in 2023: 510 GW (IEA, https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2023/executive-summary)
2. 75% of VRE capacity addition in 2023 was solar PV 
3. Wind power capacity addition worldwide in 2023: 117 GW, which includes 11 GW of offshore wind.  77% of new additions were in China.
4. Wind power capacity addition worldwide in 2022: 77 GW
5. Wind power capacity addition in USA in 2022: 8.5 GW
6. Total wind+solar power capacity in USA addition in 2023 is: 33.8 GW
7. In Energy terms, the percentage of wind and solar energy worldwide is about: 12.2%
8. In Energy terms, the percentage of wind and solar energy in US is about: 14%
9. China added 21.5 GW/46.6 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2023, up 194% year on year (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/12/chinese-pv-industry-brief-station...)
10. Tesla added grid-connected BESS in 2023 of 14.7 GWh (https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-deployed-14-7gwh-of-energy-storage...)

Sources: https://www.eenews.net/articles/us-sets-clean-power-installation-record-..., and others.

 https://www.powermag.com/group-says-record-117-gw-of-new-wind-power-gene...

In the latest 1,000 MW wind auction conducted by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), the lowest bids were Rs 2.64 (USD 0.0404) per kWh by ReNew for 250 MW and Orange for 200 MW.  To round out the winner, there were three other winners at Rs 2.65.  Compare this to the lowest auction price of Rs 3.42 (USD 0.0523) in August 2017 during wind auction by Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company.

At USD 0.0404, the price of wind in India is approaching prices in the Texas region of US, where PPAs are below USD 0.02 (add to this USD 0.023 in production tax credits for 10 years).  Note, the wind speeds in India are lower than Texas, while the total installed cost in India is lower.

For details, see http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/renew-power-or....

This article also points out that the lowest solar auction in India has yielded an astonishing Rs 2.44 per kWh (USD 0.03733).

With this race to the bottom in RE prices, lot of players in India are questioning if the utility-scale RE industry will get decimated.  Similar questions were being raised about the US wind industry 3 to 4 years ago when PPA prices in Texas dipped below US 0.02, and so far the industry has survived.

In Kauai island of Hawaii, AES is installing 28 MW of solar PV with 20 MW/100 MWh of battery for $0.11/kWh.  In 2015, 13 MW solar PV with 52 MWh battery from SolarCity was signed for $0.145/kWh.  With significant storage, this was billed the "first fully dispatchable solar plant."

Currently the island is powered by diesel and the generation cost is 0.15+ per kWh.  The average residential tariff is $0.323/kWh.  And no discussion is complete without the beautiful duck curve:

GE has published a good website with all the resources related to enhancing asset performance.

https://ge-power.postclickmarketing.com/APM-Resource-Center-Ungated/soci...

US Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) reported that for the first time in about 40 years, transportation sector emitted more CO2 than the power sector.

See http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-121/issue-3/departments/g... for details.

We have always wondered if RE plants can provide frequency and voltage support to the grid,  First Solar is making the case:

"First Solar slightly curtailed power output at a 300-megawatt solar farm in California, enabled its array of inverters, and plugged into CAISO’s system. It then orchestrated the plant’s output to follow CAISO’s automatic generation control (AGC) signals, respond to its frequency regulation commands, and use inverters for voltage regulation, power factor regulation and reactive power control."

For more details see https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/PV-Plants-Can-Rival-Frequen...

Yesterday, the Block Island wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island was commissioned and started powering homes in the island. It is a 30 MW wind farm with five turbines, but one of the turbines is not yet operating.

In other development, yesterday Shell won a Dutch auction for offshore wind energy (22 Km from shore) at 0.05450 Euros per kWh, that is less than $0.06 per kWh. The previous auction in July this year was won by Dong at 0.0727 Euros per kWh. These exclude transmission costs.

Earlier this year Vattenfall won a bid at 0.0499 Euros for 600 MW Kreigers Flak offshore wind project in Denmark.

At this rate, offshore wind may be already cost competitive with new fossil-fuel plants in these European countries .

Gone are the days when turbine manufacturers were reticent to offer more than 3 to 5 years of bumper-to-bumper service contracts. Now we are seeing 15-year full service contracts. This is huge for developers because it reduces uncertainty of both energy production and O&M cost, thereby increasing financeability of a project. In addition, the cost of O&M has fallen 30% in the last 5 years. For more see, http://analysis.windenergyupdate.com/operations-maintenance/turbine-supp....

With lower PPAs and feed-in tariffs, the push is towards lower and more predictable O&M costs. With data analytics and more efficient supply chains, it is predicted that the costs will fall 20% in the next five years. See http://analysis.windenergyupdate.com/content/wind-om-dallas-2016-keynote....

Gamesa has installed a 2 MW prototype hybrid system with 850 kW of wind, 245 kW of solar PV, 3x222 of diesel genset and 429-kilowatt/500-kilowatt-hour of lithium-ion. This cuts the cost of electricity by 40% compared to diesel alone, however cost details of this installation are not available.  For more details see https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/gamesa-targets-40-percent-s...